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The Nasdaq 100 exhibits a bearish seasonal trend around Nonfarm Payroll releases, with a -5.02% annualized return and high volatility. Losses tend to outweigh gains, making risk management crucial.
J Sainsbury Plc faces mounting cost pressures due to rising wages and tax increases. The company has responded with job cuts and cost-saving measures, but its seasonal weakness from February 2 to March 14 suggests further downside risk.
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc has historically delivered strong seasonal gains from February 2 to March 8, with an annualized return of +173.69% and a 70% win rate. This year, a new £9 billion UK defense contract could further fuel the stock’s momentum.
For the Fed’s meeting on Jan 29th the expectation from analysts and STIR markets is that the Fed will keep rates steady at 4.375% with it being seen as a 100% chance of an ‘on hold’ decision. Interestingly, we can see that over the last 10 years when the Fed has kept rates on hold the EURUSD has tended to upside gains with a 62.96% win percentage and the maximum gain being over 1%.
The FTSE 100 recently surged to a record high of 8,505.22, supported by factors like a weaker British pound, robust corporate buyback programs, and strong sectoral performance. Historical seasonal patterns suggest a potential for further gains, with an average return of +1.68% between January 31 and February 27 and an 80% win rate over the past decade.
President Trump’s second term brings significant implications for the U.S. dollar (USD), driven by his fiscal and trade policies. Seasonal analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) shows a reliable upward trend from February 1st to March 15th, with an average gain of +1.55% and a 90% success rate. This historical strength, paired with supportive technical factors, presents a compelling opportunity for traders.
The Bank of Japan's policy meeting on January 23-24, 2025, is set to shape the USD/JPY outlook. With an 80% probability of a rate hike from 0.25% to 0.5%, historical patterns suggest a +0.53% average move in USD/JPY on the day of the decision, with a 75% winning rate.
The Bank of Japan's upcoming rate decision on January 24 could have a significant impact on USD/JPY. Will a rate hike strengthen the yen, or will the central bank hold steady?
With an average return of +5.95% and an 86.67% winning percentage from February 3 to April 29, GSK is entering a seasonal sweet spot. Recent oncology-focused acquisitions further strengthen its growth potential.
The upcoming UK CPI report is critical for shaping expectations around the BoE’s monetary policy. With services inflation at 5% y/y in November, well above the 2% target, the report’s outcome could significantly impact GBPUSD. A softer-than-expected print may pressure GBP, with past CPI events showing falls of up to -1.97%. Traders should watch the 1.2100 support level and consider historical patterns to refine their strategies.
