Looking to trade with more confidence? Giles Coghlan shares expert analysis to help you spot opportunities and navigate risks in equities, forex, and commodities.
His clear, actionable outlooks are trusted by traders worldwide and featured in Reuters, WSJ, Business Insider, FT Adviser, NBC, and more.
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BP is under pressure as activist investor Elliott Management pushes for strategic changes and cost-cutting measures. Despite this uncertainty, history suggests a potential upside - BP’s stock has gained an average of +5.57% from March 15 to May 20, with a 76% win rate.
Unilever is navigating a corporate shakeup and rumored acquisition of Vitabiotics while entering one of its strongest seasonal windows, boasting an 85% win rate from February 18 to May 15. This bullish trend aligns with the company’s strategic push into the health and wellness market. Investors are watching closely to see if historical seasonality and strategic moves can drive momentum through Q2.
Adidas' stock shows a historical pattern of seasonal weakness from February 19 to March 7, with an annualized return of -56.90% and only a 30% chance of gains. However, this dip often leads to a strong rebound from March 8 to mid-May, boasting a +60.53% annualized return and a 90% win rate.
Historical trends suggest that EUR/USD tends to strengthen between February 12 and March 17, posting an average return of +0.70% with a 75% win rate. As the Federal Reserve and ECB navigate economic uncertainty, traders are watching for key macro catalysts.
As the February 12 CPI release approaches, traders brace for volatility in the Nasdaq 100. With inflation expectations rising and Fed Chair Powell set to speak, the index faces a pivotal moment. However, historical seasonality tells a different story—showing an 87.69% annualized return and a 65% win rate around CPI events.
Germany’s DAX index has dropped amid renewed trade tensions, particularly in the auto sector. However, history suggests that March through June is a seasonally strong period, with an average gain of +6.57% and a 90% win rate.
The Nasdaq 100 exhibits a bearish seasonal trend around Nonfarm Payroll releases, with a -5.02% annualized return and high volatility. Losses tend to outweigh gains, making risk management crucial.
J Sainsbury Plc faces mounting cost pressures due to rising wages and tax increases. The company has responded with job cuts and cost-saving measures, but its seasonal weakness from February 2 to March 14 suggests further downside risk.
Rolls-Royce Holdings plc has historically delivered strong seasonal gains from February 2 to March 8, with an annualized return of +173.69% and a 70% win rate. This year, a new £9 billion UK defense contract could further fuel the stock’s momentum.
For the Fed’s meeting on Jan 29th the expectation from analysts and STIR markets is that the Fed will keep rates steady at 4.375% with it being seen as a 100% chance of an ‘on hold’ decision. Interestingly, we can see that over the last 10 years when the Fed has kept rates on hold the EURUSD has tended to upside gains with a 62.96% win percentage and the maximum gain being over 1%.
