On November 14, US CPI inflation data is coming out and it's widely anticipated to come in lower than the prior reading with the headline at 3.3% and the core in line with the prior reading of 4.1% year-on-year now there is intense focus on US inflation because markets are trying to assess whether the Federal reserve has indeed finished hiking interest rates if they have finished hiking interest rates that could signal another leg higher in US equities as well as the beginning of a down trend for the heavily bought US dollar.
The latest CFTC report shows that traders are stretched to the long side on the USD. When you can see stretched positioning it means that there is a vulnerability for a sharp correction if there is any reasons for USD selling.
US CPI is expected to pull back to 3.6% from August’s print of 3.7% and the core is expected to fall for the sixth month in a row down to 4.1% from the prior reading of 4.3%. This should keep yields and the USD mildly pressured.
The marquee event of this week is the US CPI event on Thursday. Traders will be looking at this data closely for how fast the Federal Reserve will be hiking interest rates. The best opportunity would likely come from a…