- Instrument: Platinum
- Average Pattern Move: –6.07%
- Timeframe: April 29 – June 24
- Winning Percentage: 20.00%
Dear Investor,
You may have heard that platinum is in a structural deficit, yet you may not realize that seasonally, the metal tends to struggle into the early summer. Given the depth of current macro imbalances in the market, we want to analyze the data in more detail.
The chart below shows you the typical development of platinum prices from April 29 to June 24 over the last 15 years. Historically, this period has been a seasonally weak window, with prices falling an average of –6.07% and only a 20% win rate. This makes it one of the most consistently negative periods in the calendar for platinum.
This seasonal softness may seem at odds with recent headlines. According to the World Platinum Investment Council, the global platinum market is forecast to record its third consecutive deficit in 2025, with a shortfall of 848 koz. Despite a 5% decline in demand projected this year, above-ground stocks are expected to fall by another 25%, leaving less than four months of demand cover. So why the seasonal dip? Historically, platinum has tended to face softness during this window due to cyclical weakness in industrial and chemical demand post-Q1, combined with seasonal investor outflows. This year may prove different — but the pattern is worth noting as we head into late April.
Technical Perspective
Technically, platinum futures is in a large multiyear range from 1050 to the upside and 900 to the down side. See the chart below for those key support and resistance zones which have been providing a clear floor and ceiling for prices. Any moves back down towards 900 would be a clear target for sellers.
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Trade Risks:
The key risk to this seasonal outlook is that structural deficits continue to tighten and eventually overwhelm historical patterns. Increased retail and institutional investment, supply shocks from major producers, or further geopolitical instability could cause platinum to diverge sharply from seasonal norms.
Don’t just trade it, Seasonax it!
