Crude oil markets enter a historically strong window from June 24 to July 1, with WTI posting an average gain of 2.09% and an 80% win rate over the past 15 years. This year, seasonal momentum aligns with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Strikes between Israel and Iran are increasing supply fears, especially around the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. Traders are bracing for volatility and potential price spikes.
Oil markets may be on the verge of a major geopolitical shift as speculation grows over a potential US-Saudi-Russia deal. Meanwhile, crude oil's seasonal pattern points to a historically strong period from March to July, with an average gain of +4.84%. Will this alignment of market forces drive oil prices higher?
Some seasonal trends are counter-intuitive.
The price of crude oil is falling despite the start of the heating season in the fall. Would you have known?
Oil stocks used to be an easy investment choice due to a booming world population and the globalized economy's hunger for fossil fuels. Today, the oil and gas industry is much less stable. Recent surplus of crude oil and natural gas, as well as irregular demand patterns, have made the energy sector lag behind the broader stock market.
Article in German Dear Investor, Similar to many other market observers you may be expecting a seasonal rally in the crude oil price on account of the start of the heating season in autumn. After all, energy consumption will increase…
PDF download Dear Investor, In commodities trading, seasonality is quite a popular tool – and rightly so! For example, agricultural commodities are often cheaper after the harvest than before the harvest. Natural gas that is difficult to store tends to…
