Over the last 5 years gold has risen into and out of US CPI prints 60% of the time for an average 0.28% gain. Interestingly, the largest gain on a US CPI print in gold has been 3.11%. So, if we see a big miss in the US CPI print with the CPI MM 0.10% or lower, the Core CPI MM 0.10% or lower, the headline 3% or lower, and the CORE CPI 3.7% or lower then watch out for gold gains!
Before Friday’s open JPMorgan Chase & Co will reveal their Q4 earnings. The performance of JPMorgan has been very strong in 2023 with the the firm earning so much that managers have been warning about ‘over earning’.
Boeing’s share prices have fallen on Monday with the news that the FAA are temporarily grounding and inspecting a certain Boeing 737 Max nine aircraft operated by US airlines. The grounding is expected to impact over 170 aircraft and Boeing share prices fell pre-market on this fresh bout of negative news for the 737 Max aircraft.
The strongest month of the year for Netflix is in January. Over the last 20 years Netflix has gained over 11% on average between January 17 and February 01, so will we see further gains this year?
Right now the market has been seeing USD seasonal strength to start the year due to some tax-related flows from US corporations(as tends to happen most years). The data out this week for the US has been mixed and the NFP print will be crucial in setting the tone for the USD to end the first week of 2024.
The dollar index has a very interesting turn of the year pattern. Heading into year and the dollar sees pronounced weakness from a seasonal perspective but in contrast, we see dollars strength to start the year from a seasonal perspective.
Platinum has a very strong seasonal pattern to start the year. Over the last 25 years prices have gained over 75% of the time for an average return of 6.02%. The maximum drop in a positive year has been -7.38%, so the technicals look attractive for dip buying platinum if we see a pull back in early January.
The Bank of Japan met this week and failed to signal a clear end to their negative interest rate policy. This allowed the JPY to weaken and lifted the JPY crosses higher. However, the big picture has not changed! The Bank of Japan is still expected to end negative interest rates around the spring of 2024, so that should mean any moves lower in the JPY find dip buyers.
The so called Santa Rally could be alive and well for the UK! Over the last 10 years the FTSE 100 has gained 100% of the time from December 18 through to December 29!
So, is this a chance to get a free gift from the UK’s stock market this year? Time for gains in the FTSE?
Has the Fed just given the green light for gold to gain into the start of 2024? With a dovish dot plot forecasting 3 Fed rate cuts next year bonds were heavily bought last night and the USD was convincingly sold.
