It is a repeated seasonal pattern that canny investors are well aware of. The pattern also shows an ability to withstand some volatility, as shown by a maximum drawdown of 10.9% in some years. However, the maximum gains during this period have reached as high as 22.19%, which compensates for the downside risks.
Looking at the USD moves. With markets anticipating a Trump victory as a protectionist move for the US further USD strength could well be the result of a Trump victory. Seasonally, the USD has gained 4 out of the last 6 elections in the US going back 25 years.
The FTSE 100 typically enters a strong period of growth from here until the end of the year. Over the last 25 years the FTSE 100 has gained 76% of the time with an average return of 2.80%. Furthermore, the largest gain was a 15.84% return in 2020. So, will the strong seasonal beat the budget blues?
Over the past 25 years, the S&P 500 has shown a pattern of positive returns over the first four days of the month of November, with a strong annualized return of 103.60% and a notable 72.00% win rate for trades. The cumulative profit chart shows steady gains across 25 years
This week’s US labour report will be in key focus as investors seek to evaluate the Fed’s communication on rates. The Fed have signaled two rate cuts to come this year, and that has been supporting the USD higher over the last few weeks. So, on Friday November 01 a surprise in the jobs report could move the USD significantly.
The seasonal data for McDonald’s Corporation suggests a favorable trading opportunity. Over the last 20 years, the stock has shown a robust annualized return of 52.69% during the period from late October to mid-December.
Apple's iPhone 16 has seen a strong start in China, with sales up 20% in the first three weeks compared to the previous year’s iPhone 15, according to Counterpoint Research. This marks a positive signal for Apple!
Boeing’s third-quarter report brought disappointing news, with significant losses across its commercial aircraft and defense divisions. Combined, these units reported a $6.4 billion operating loss, pushing the company to announce workforce reductions and potential delays in production.
Rio Tinto recently announced its $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium Plc, positioning itself firmly in the lithium market—a vital mineral for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. This move is significant, considering China's dominance in lithium production and refining, which accounts for 65% of the global refined lithium output.
Activist investor Starboard Value has taken a $1 billion stake in Pfizer, seeking to turn around the company's fortunes. They've approached former Pfizer executives to aid their efforts, hinting at potential strategic changes.
