Seasonax Support

Today Seasonax is featured on Tradingview via the CMT association, featuring the latest seasonal insights.

Article in German You have probably already become aware from media reports that global stock markets plummeted last week, for instance the S&P 500 Index lost 11.49 percent. The catalyst was the corona virus epidemic, which is spreading in Italy,…

When I heard about Bitcoin for the very first time in May of 2011, it traded at eight US dollars. As I write this, almost exactly six years later on May 20 2017, it has broken through the USD 2,000…

You have probably heard about the Halloween effect or the autumn rally. The former term refers to the fact that stocks on average tend to perform significantly worse in the summer months than in the winter months, the latter term…

Article in German Novo Nordisk exhibits a brief, but very strong seasonal phase Take a look at the seasonal chart of Novo Nordisk below. This is not a standard price chart showing prices moves over a specific time period. Rather,…

Article in German Mining stocks track precious metals seasonality Take a look at the seasonal chart of the HUI gold mining index below. This is not a standard chart depicting price moves over a specific time period. Rather, the seasonal…

Article in German The new year is at the same time an election year. How does the US presidential election affect the stock market? I want to show you the typical patterns of the US stock market in an election…

Article in German Silver is seasonally cheap in mid December First I will show you the seasonal chart of silver. The chart shows the average moves in silver prices in the course of a calendar year over the past 69…

Article in German Commodities often provide an alternative to investing in stocks – and they have clearly discernible seasonal trends. Thus heating oil tends to be cheaper in the summer than during the heating season in winter, and wheat is…

Article in German The US dollar typically declines at the end of the year – and recovers immediately thereafter The chart below shows the seasonal pattern of the US dollar index. This is not a standard price chart such as…

Article in German Seasonal patterns can be identified at a glance on a seasonal chart The first chart below is not a standard chart that depicts price moves over a specific time period. Rather, the seasonal chart of the S&P…

Article in German As you can undoubtedly imagine, I am convinced of the validity of seasonal patterns. The fact that stocks, commodities or currencies exhibit seasonal trends is backed by exhaustive statistical studies. Moreover, there are sound fundamental explanations for…

Article in German You may already have guessed: when the vibrant colors of the autumn leaves are revealed in all their splendor, the strongest seasonal period of the year begins in the stock market – namely the year-end rally. Stocks…

Article in German The seasonally weak period in the S&P 500 Index lies directly ahead! First let us take a look at a normal seasonal chart of the S&P 500 Index. It has been calculated based on the average returns…

Article in German Four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September and December, contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and equity options expire concurrently. Derivatives contracts are not only expiring in the US on…

Article in German On 24 July 2020 the Olympic Summer Games will begin in Tokyo, the capital of Japan. In addition to the Olympics, Soccer World Cups are among the largest sporting events in the world. Are you also among…

Article in German Within nine months, yields on the 10-year treasury note have declined from 3.2% to 1.8%, once again approaching their all time lows. The situation is even more extreme in other developed countries. On Friday 02 August 2019,…

Article in German Global stock market returns during summer vs. winter periods Almost the entire return was generated in the winter months. The division into two time periods of equal length is merely a matter of convention though. Greater precision…

Article in German You can probably imagine that I am convinced of the merits of seasonality. However, even I was surprised that an investment strategy based on seasonality is apparently leaving numerous far more popular strategies in the dust. And…

Article in German In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I discussed the typical pattern of stock prices when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. As one would expect, the stock market tends to stabilize after cuts in the federal…

Article in German “This is the greatest economy in the history of our country”, Donald Trump opined just a few months ago. Alas, recently there is growing evidence of an economic slowdown. This has fueled speculation of imminent rate cuts…

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have discussed Bitcoin’s seasonal pattern in the course of a year. In this issue I will show an analysis of the returns of bitcoin on individual days of the week. It seems…

When I heard about Bitcoin for the very first time in May of 2011, it traded at eight US dollars. As I write this, almost exactly eight years later on May 21 2019, it is trading at about USD 7,950.…

Here is how easily you can save money when purchasing a home, or earn additional money when selling one! The first chart below shows the seasonal pattern in US home prices, i.e., the average trend based on the price performance…

Article in German Does this rule actually work? To find out whether it does, we have reviewed the stock market’s performance during the summer period from May to October and compared it to the performance during the winter period from…

Article in German As a shareholder you are probably asking yourself every quarter how the earnings of companies in your portfolio will turn out. Whether they will beat analyst expectations often seems akin to a lottery. However, what is not…

Article in German In order to beat the market, you are probably – like many investors – spending a lot of time searching for rare undiscovered gems or sophisticated trading rules. There is actually a simpler way. I want to…

Article in German In the Seasonal Insights issue of 13 February 2019 I presented a study illustrating the power of intraweek effects. The article was entitled “S&P 500 Index: A Single Day Beats the Entire Week!” The result of the…

Seasonality helps with stock selection Everybody has probably heard about the end-of-year rally phenomenon by now. It affects the majority of stocks during the same time period, namely in the final weeks of the year. However, many people are unaware…

Tuesday is a particularly strong trading day, Friday a weak one The chart below shows the annualized performance of the S&P 500 Index since the turn of the century in black, as well as the cumulative annualized return generated on…

Having a glimpse at our previous articles, you might have noticed that seasonal market trends are not unique to a handful of companies, but are a widespread phenomenon that many markets accommodate, often unknowingly. Trading on a stock that exhibits…

Article in German Every year a certain stock market phenomenon is said to recur, anticipated with excitement by investors: the so-called Santa Claus rally. It is held that stock prices typically rise quite frequently and particularly strongly just before the…

The US faces uncertain economic times, as Trump and Xi Jinping are still locked in a bitter trade dispute that is likely to go on for some time, creating uncertainty for the future of trade between the world’s two biggest…

Prices in financial and commodity markets exhibit seasonal trends. We have for example shown you how stocks of pharmaceutical companies tend to rise in summer due to higher demand, or the end-of-year rally phenomenon (last issue), which can be observed…

Today marks the last day of October, the month that has investors in fear of the next big stock market crash (see Seasonal Insights Issue 20). This also means that today is Halloween and while there is something particularly spooky…

During the month of October, we, as investors, are still in a peculiar state of mind. Although we have almost survived the dangerous season (that led to a couple of hiccups), we are still waiting for the year-end rally and…

The last time we have talked to you about Bitcoin was in May 2017 when we have discussed that Bitcoin too has a seasonal weakness in summer. We have shown you that you can identify a seasonal pattern in Bitcoin.…

In our last Seasonal Insights we have mixed things up a little bit and talked to you about the media sector – an industry that performs very poorly during the month of August. Upon your positive feedback we have decided…

In the last issue of our Seasonal Insights we have talked to you about biotech and pharmaceuticals as an industry that withstands the traditional summer low on the stock markets. Six weeks ago, we have shown you that gold is…

Four weeks ago we talked to you about gold as an asset class that is fairly resistant to the traditional summer low on the markets. However, by using our application and checking different industries, we are able to find potential…

Around this time of the year, we ususally discuss asset classes that have problems in most years until the autumn. We thought you might for a change want to hear of an asset that will be in a seasonal uptrend…

In this issue of our Seasonal Insights, we will use a hands-on example, German shoe manufacturer and lifestyle brand Puma, to illustrate the process of our seasonal analysis. We will show you how to profit from its strong seasonal pattern.…

In this issue of our Seasonal Insights, we will use the opportunity to inform you about how you can use our tools to analyse seasonal patterns without having access to a Bloomberg or Thomson Reuters terminal. Analyse seasonality from wherever…

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights we showed you the statistics associated with the popular truism “sell in May and go away” in the countries with the eleven largest stock markets. The comparison divided the calendar year into a…

Article in German The “turn-of-the-month effect” is one of the most fascinating stock market phenomena. It describes the fact that price gains primarily tend to occur around the turn of the month. By contrast, the rest of the time around…

Article in German We first discussed the “turn-of-the-month effect” in Seasonal Insights issue 6 of March 21, 2018. The term describes the fact that price gains in the stock market tend to cluster around the turn of the month. By…

You may be following sporting events as passionately as you follow market price trends. Or perhaps you’re not a sports fan, and you’re only interested in the stock market? Either way, there is an exciting question about what effect big…

Article in German Today we want to discuss a particularly simple and effective anomaly, albeit one that is marred by a small catch – more on this further below. With the help of this particular anomaly you would have been…

In your professional capacity and perhaps also in your private life, you are closely involved with financial and commodity markets. Trading in stocks, bonds or futures is part of your daily routine. Occasionally you probably have to deal with real…

Article in German As I have shown in previous issues of Seasonal Insights, various financial instruments are demonstrating peculiar behavior in the course of the week: the S&P 500 Index is typically strong on Tuesdays, Gold on Fridays and Bitcoin…

You have probably heard about the Halloween effect or the autumn rally. The former term refers to the fact that stocks on average tend to perform significantly worse in the summer months than in the winter months, the latter term…

Every year a certain stock market phenomenon is said to recur, anticipated with excitement by investors: the Santa Claus rally. It is held that stock prices typically rise quite frequently and particularly strongly just before the turn of the year.…

Following the tremendous success of previous annual Technical Analysis & Data Visualisation Summit events, Bloomberg is delighted to host the 5th Annual Summit on 14th December 2017. We aim to enlighten guests with each speaker’s expertise and unique insights, as…

A recurring phenomenon is said to take place in the stock market every year: the Santa Claus rally, a.k.a. the year-end rally. It is held that stock prices typically rise particularly strongly just before the turn of the year. Does…

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have discussed how the S&P 500 Index performs on individual days of the week. In this issue I will show an analysis of the returns of bitcoin on individual days of the…

If you “sell in May and go away”, you are definitely on the right side of the trend from a statistical perspective: While gains were achieved in the summer months in three of the eleven largest stock markets in the…

Dimitri Speck, financial analyst, book author and founder of Seasonax, has received the Winged Sculpture of the German Precious Metals Association (DEG), a prize awarded annually since 2013 to deserving persons or projects that have stood out in terms of…

Seasonal charts enable one to discern seasonal trends at a glance, and see during which time periods precisely an instrument’s prospects are strong and what returns were generated on these occasions in the past. I would nevertheless recommend taking a…

In the past two issues of Seasonal Insights I have shown that many individual stocks display unique seasonal patterns. There is a variety of reasons for this phenomenon. Often internal procedures are responsible, which can e.g. lead to a company’s…

Seasonality in Individual Stocks – Is it Based on Sound Evidence? People often wonder whether it is actually possible to make profitable trades by taking advantage of seasonal trends in individual stocks. Most investors accept the idea that seasonal trends…

Systematic Trading Based on Statistics Trading methods based on statistics represent an unusual approach for many investors. Evaluation of a security’s fundamental merits is not of concern, even though it can of course be done additionally. Rather, the only important…

In order to beat the market, you are probably – like many investors – spending a lot of time searching for rare undiscovered gems or sophisticated trading rules. There is actually a simpler way. I want to show you how…

In your professional capacity and perhaps also in your private life, you are closely involved with financial and commodity markets. Trading in stocks, bonds or futures is part of your daily routine. Occasionally you probably have to deal with real…

Something similar to the following has probably happened to you at some point: you want to buy a stock on a certain day and in order to time your entry, you begin to watch how it trades. Alas, the price…

The new release of Seasonax App is now available on Thomson Reuters Eikon via the app studio. The following video created by Thomson Reuters shows you all the features.

Prices in financial and commodity markets are exhibiting seasonal trends. This applies to the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium as well. The chart below depicts the seasonal trends of the gold price over a time period of 45…

Numerous strong markets moves were triggered in the wake of the US election outcome, including a rally in the US dollar. What is going to happen after this initial advance though? Will the “Trump rally” in the US dollar continue,…

The heating season in the Northern hemisphere means that energy consumption will rise. This is however offset by other factors, such as the use of alternative energy sources and prices that have often been agreed to in advance. What is…

Although the month of October without outliers like the crashes of 1987 and 2008 delivers an acceptable performance in seasonal terms, these particularly strong declines in such short time periods are nevertheless scary: what use is it to anyone if…

Seasonax Event Studies As our readers are aware by now, investment decisions can be optimized with the help of statistics. After all, market anomalies that have occurred regularly in the past often tend to occur in the future as well.…

In recent issues of Seasonal Insights I have discussed two asset classes that tend to suffer performance problems in most years until the autumn, namely stocks and bitcoin. I thought you might for a change want to hear of an…

You are surely aware of the saying “sell in May and go away”. It is one of the best-known and oldest stock market truisms. And the saying is justified. In my article “Sell in May and Go Away – in…

Every investor makes trading decisions based on what happened in the past – there is no other way. What interests us is the future though. After all, what happens in the future ultimately determines investment success. But will patterns that…

You have probably noticed it already: stock market volatility has recently all but disappeared. This raises an important question for every investor: Has the market established a permanent plateau of low volatility, or is the current period of low volatility…

Many market participants believe simple phenomena in the stock market are purely random events and cannot recur consistently. Indeed, there is probably no stock market rule that will remain valid forever. However, there continue to be stock market phenomena –…

The prospect of steep market declines worries investors – and the month of October has a particularly bad reputation in this respect. Although the month of October delivers an acceptable performance in seasonal terms if one disregards outliers like the…

Years ending in 7, such as the current year 2017, have a bad reputation among many stock market participants. Large price declines tend to occur quite frequently in these years. Just think of 1987, the year in which the largest…

We are proud of the fact that Seasonax made the cut into Bloomberg Global Macro Overview Q4 2017! Enjoy reading: ”The Quaterly Q4/2017“ Written by Oliver Woolf, CAIA, CMT, FRM, technical analysis specialist at Bloomberg LP. The chart below exhibits…

The Japanese stock market is quite unique: it would need to rally by approximately 80% to reach its former historical peak. What’s more, said peak was attained on the final trading day of 1989, more than 25 years ago. In…

You are undoubtedly aware of one or another stock market anomaly, such as e.g. the frequent weakness in stock markets in the summer months, which the well-known saying “sell in May and go away” refers to. Apart from such widely…

In the last issue of Seasonal Insights I have shown that the gold price behaves quite peculiarly in the course of the trading week. On average, prices rise almost exclusively on Friday. It is as though investors in this market…

In past issues of Seasonal Insights I have discussed the very odd behavior of a variety of instruments in the course of a week: in issue 17 the topic was the S&P 500 Index, and in issue 18 the no…

Article in German You are probably aware of the influence US elections have on the stock market. After Donald Trump was elected president, a particularly strong rally in stock prices ensued. Contrary to what many market participants seem to believe,…

Article in German As you know, investment decisions can be optimized with the help of statistics. One possibility to do so is offered by the FOMC meeting strategy. A study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in…

Article in German An Old Seasonal Truism Most people are probably aware of the saying “sell in May and go away”. This popular seasonal Wall Street truism implies that the market’s performance is far worse in the six summer months…

As a technical analyst at Raiffeisen Bank International Stefan Memmer covers a broad range of assets, especially stock indices and fixed income markets. Today, he is sharing some of his financial expertise with us. Enjoy the interview! 1. What is…

The months of September and October are widely known to represent a seasonally particularly weak time of the year. Indeed, at no other time of the year is the S&P 500 Index falling as quickly as in the time period…

At the beginning of November this year, the US presidential elections will take place, just as they do every four years. During election years, investors often become excited about the results, hoping for a victory for the candidate with what…

The US central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds regular meetings, a total of eight times a year, and market participants look forward to their outcomes: will interest rates be lowered, will they be increased, are there hints at…

We proudly present the new version of our Seasonax App which just launched on Bloomberg Professional and will soon be available on Thomson Reuters Eikon. It includes a tremendous amount of exciting new features such as Intraday, Intrayear and Event…

The price of gold typically increases in the second half of the year. This pattern is so striking that even a large number of market observers are aware of it. However, using Seasonax allows us to investigate this more closely.…

As a shareholder you probably wonder what the dividends on your shares will be from quarter to quarter. Now, with help of seasonality, you are able to come closer to your estimations. Let’s look at one of the most favored…