Trading Ideas

Looking to trade with more confidence? Giles Coghlan shares expert analysis to help you spot opportunities and navigate risks in equities, forex, and commodities.

His clear, actionable outlooks are trusted by traders worldwide and featured in Reuters, WSJ, Business Insider, FT Adviser, NBC, and more.

Stay ahead with insights that cut through the noise – from one of the industry’s most respected analysts.

Technical and Seasonal factors align against Euro in May

EUR/USD: May Weakness Ahead – Key Technical Test at 1.12000

The EUR/USD pair historically underperforms in May, and this year appears to be no different. With an average decline of -0.96% between May 5 and May 30 over the past 15 years, and a low win rate of just 33.33% for bullish moves, the odds are stacked against the euro. Technically, 1.1200 is the key battleground, as the euro tests both horizontal resistance and a long-term breakout. Meanwhile, macro factors such as ECB-Fed divergence and weak eurozone growth only add to the downside risk.

seasonal pressures loom over Nomura US push

Nomura’s U.S. Ambitions Face a Historically Harsh Summer

Nomura Holdings is making bold moves to expand its U.S. footprint, including the recent $1.8 billion acquisition of Macquarie’s public asset management business. However, history suggests the stock faces a tough seasonal stretch between May and September, with an average return of -8.10% and a low win rate of just 28%. As U.S. credit spreads tighten and recession fears persist, Nomura’s strategic timing may face added scrutiny.

Can the S&P 500 Rally Despite the IMF’s Growth Downgrade?

S&P 500: Can It Still Rally Out Of The US GDP Print Despite the IMF Downgrade?

Despite growing economic concerns, the S&P 500 has historically shown resilience around US GDP releases. The IMF’s recent downgrade of US growth to 1.8% for 2025 underscores growing recession risks, yet seasonal data suggests the index could still rally. Market participants are closely watching how this week’s GDP data might shape future policy and equity sentiment.

DXY’s Seasonal Edge at Risk in 2025’s Shifting Macro Landscape

DXY: Seasonal Strength at Risk Amid Confidence Crisis

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has historically posted strong gains between May 1 and May 25, with a 66.67% win rate. However, this year’s macro backdrop could disrupt that pattern. Mounting trade tensions and declining confidence in U.S. policy undermine traditional safe-haven flows. According to Deutsche Bank, we may be in the early stages of a “dramatic regime change” that challenges the dollar's status.

platinum prices drop as global deficit grows

Platinum Focus: Weak Seasonals Despite Structural Deficits

You may be surprised to learn that platinum, despite facing a structural deficit in 2025, historically underperforms during late spring to early summer. From April 29 to June 24, the metal has dropped over the past 15 years, with a low win rate of just 20%. This weakness often stems from cyclical industrial slowdowns and seasonal investor flows. Even with declining supply and tight above-ground stocks, the pattern remains firmly intact.

Why the Australian Dollar May Struggle in Late April

AUD/USD: Seasonal Weakness Aligns With Tariff Risk

The Australian dollar often faces seasonal weakness from April 21 to May 23.This pattern could be further stressed by rising trade tensions and renewed protectionist rhetoric from the US. The AUD, being sensitive to global trade flows and commodity demand, is particularly exposed to any escalation in tariffs, especially those involving China. If risk appetite deteriorates, further downside in AUDUSD is likely. However, surprises in Chinese stimulus or a softer Fed outlook could shift the tide.

Tariffs, Timing, and Trouble for Copper Prices

Copper’s Tariff Premium Faces Seasonal Reckoning

Copper prices have rallied sharply this year, largely driven by tariff fears. However, history shows a strong seasonal tendency for copper to weaken between mid-April and late June — a period that often delivers negative returns. As traders await final decisions on tariffs and face swelling US inventories, the risks of a correction are rising. Seasonal data, soft Chinese demand, and speculative positioning could all collide to drive prices lower.

US Dollar Rallies Against Peso in This Seasonal Window

USD/MXN: Seasonal Strength Aligns With Macro Drivers

The USD/MXN currency pair typically strengthens between April 16 and April 27, showing gains in 73.33% of the past 15 years. This 10-day window has delivered an average move of +0.83% and an impressive annualised return of over 31%. With macro drivers such as geopolitical risks and tariff concerns rising, historical patterns may align with current sentiment. A strong technical support zone near 20.00 adds further clarity for trade setups.

Spring Surge for HSBC Shares Despite Trade Tensions

HSBC Holdings: A Seasonal Window Amid Trade War Turbulence

HSBC Holdings has come under pressure amid renewed US-China trade tensions, but history offers a compelling reason for optimism. Over the past 15 years, the bank’s shares have shown a strong seasonal pattern between April 14 and June 7, delivering average returns of +2.29%. If global trade sentiment shifts or Chinese stimulus emerges, HSBC’s Asia exposure could turn from liability to advantage. Investors may want to take note before the window closes.

Spring strength in PepsiCo shares backed by history

PepsiCo: Springtime Surge Ahead?

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) has demonstrated a consistent tendency to rally from early April to mid-May. Over the past 20 years, the stock has gained in 80% of cases during this period, delivering an average return of +2.45%. With the stock in a technical uptrend and defensive sectors gaining favor, this seasonal pattern may offer a compelling edge.

CPI and what it means for the YEN

US CPI Ahead: Will USD/JPY Buck the Seasonal Weakness?

The USD/JPY pair has shown a seasonal tendency to weaken on days when US CPI is released, especially after soft inflation surprises. A historical average return of -0.14% on CPI day reflects the market’s sensitivity to disinflation. With the next release set for April 10, traders are watching closely. A lower-than-expected print could reinforce bets on Fed rate cuts and push the yen higher.