Looking to trade with more confidence? Giles Coghlan shares expert analysis to help you spot opportunities and navigate risks in equities, forex, and commodities.
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Copper prices have rallied sharply this year, largely driven by tariff fears. However, history shows a strong seasonal tendency for copper to weaken between mid-April and late June — a period that often delivers negative returns. As traders await final decisions on tariffs and face swelling US inventories, the risks of a correction are rising. Seasonal data, soft Chinese demand, and speculative positioning could all collide to drive prices lower.
The USD/MXN currency pair typically strengthens between April 16 and April 27, showing gains in 73.33% of the past 15 years. This 10-day window has delivered an average move of +0.83% and an impressive annualised return of over 31%. With macro drivers such as geopolitical risks and tariff concerns rising, historical patterns may align with current sentiment. A strong technical support zone near 20.00 adds further clarity for trade setups.
HSBC Holdings has come under pressure amid renewed US-China trade tensions, but history offers a compelling reason for optimism. Over the past 15 years, the bank’s shares have shown a strong seasonal pattern between April 14 and June 7, delivering average returns of +2.29%. If global trade sentiment shifts or Chinese stimulus emerges, HSBC’s Asia exposure could turn from liability to advantage. Investors may want to take note before the window closes.
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) has demonstrated a consistent tendency to rally from early April to mid-May. Over the past 20 years, the stock has gained in 80% of cases during this period, delivering an average return of +2.45%. With the stock in a technical uptrend and defensive sectors gaining favor, this seasonal pattern may offer a compelling edge.
The USD/JPY pair has shown a seasonal tendency to weaken on days when US CPI is released, especially after soft inflation surprises. A historical average return of -0.14% on CPI day reflects the market’s sensitivity to disinflation. With the next release set for April 10, traders are watching closely. A lower-than-expected print could reinforce bets on Fed rate cuts and push the yen higher.
GBP/USD has historically rallied between April 7 and May 8, with a 70% success rate and an average gain of +0.88%. This seasonal strength often aligns with periods of USD softness. With current macro conditions turning against the dollar, the setup for renewed Sterling gains looks strong.
April has historically been a weak month for USD/CAD, with an average decline of -1.31% and gains in only 31.58% of cases. This seasonal trend could align with upcoming US tariff announcements, which may create volatility in the pair. If tariffs avoid major disruption to Canada and oil prices rise, CAD could strengthen further. However, strong US economic data or harsher-than-expected tariffs could challenge this pattern.
Did you know that the FTSE 100 has one of the strongest April patterns among global indices? With an average gain of +1.90% and a 72% win rate over the past 25 years, April has proven to be a key month for UK equities. Institutional inflows, tax-related investments, and dividend reinvestment all contribute to this seasonal strength. Explore the data behind this trend and see how you can leverage it in your strategy.
Gold has a habit of posting strong short term gains at the beginning of April. Over the past 15 years, it has averaged a +1.92% gain from April 1 to 11 with a 73.33% win rate. With central banks accumulating gold, inflation risks lingering, and global tensions rising, is another rally on the horizon?
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s push to cap 10-year yields aligns with a historically weak summer period for bonds. Over the past 19 years, yields have fallen 16 times between June and September. With technical support at 4.15% and major banks revising their forecasts, is another leg lower coming?
