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Trading Ideas

Dive into daily market insights and trading opportunities in equity, forex, and commodity markets with our esteemed analyst Giles Coghlan. His cutting-edge analysis has been featured in Reuters, Business Insider, WSJ, Financial Times Adviser, NBC, LBC Radio, CoinTelegraph, Guardian Observer, National Express, and numerous other prestigious financial outlets.

Is China’s recent rally sustainable or do seasonals point to a pullback?

Some analysts are pointing to the fact that , despite the ‘bear market’ rally the fundamental outlook has not really changed and economic uncertainty remains with lower earnings set to remain for now. However, other analysts point to very high stock valuations in the US and Japan as a potential driver for a renewed interest in China and likely to encourage a further rotation of funds.

Watch for 2% plus swings on a surprise CPI print in the EURUSD

On Wednesday we have the US CPI print being released and it is a major focus for the Fed. In the last Fed meting, on May 01, the Fed confirmed that recent US inflation data had been disappointing. In the Press Conference Powell said, when asked about the prospect of 3 cuts this year, that the Fed needs more confidence on inflation and that the Fed did not see progress in Q1.

GBPUSD faces strong seasonal headwinds!

At the last Bank of England meeting two of the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Mann and Haskell, pulled back from the hiking interest rate camp and moved into the holding interest rate camp. This led to the GBP sell off after the last March BoE meeting. However, since then the GBP has pulled back on an index level largely helped by the Chief Economist Huw Pill who was happy to look at the latest UK data and say that he saw no change from March’s rate meeting.

Will Gold Rise Into, And Out Of The US GDP Print?

At the latest Fed meeting the Fed projected GDP to be 2.1% for 2024, so a firm US GDP print underpins the ‘soft landing’ narrative. A very weak print should support gold as in principle it should weaken the USD on rate cut hopes. So, can gold carry on it’s run higher on Thursday and into the US PCE print on Friday?