Looking to trade with more confidence? Giles Coghlan shares expert analysis to help you spot opportunities and navigate risks in equities, forex, and commodities.
His clear, actionable outlooks are trusted by traders worldwide and featured in Reuters, WSJ, Business Insider, FT Adviser, NBC, and more.
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Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc is undergoing yet another restructuring, but historical seasonal trends suggest a challenging period ahead. Over the past six years, the stock has shown a consistent decline between March and mid-May, averaging -26.45%.
Walmart faces profit concerns, but historical data suggests strong seasonal performance from March to April. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and rising costs, the stock has shown a consistent upward trend during this period.
The New Zealand dollar historically weakens against the US dollar from late February to mid-May, averaging a -2.21% move. With RBNZ's rate cuts and potential US tariffs fueling USD strength, NZD/USD could see further downside.
Historically, the DAX has gained +1.72% in the 16 days following German elections, with an 80% success rate. As political uncertainty clears, market-friendly policies could fuel another rally. Will this election follow the trend?
Shell Plc’s latest global energy outlook suggests that artificial intelligence could extend oil demand growth well into the 2030s, potentially boosting hydrocarbon resilience. Historically, Shell has delivered strong returns from February 27 to May 28, with an average gain of +6.86% and a win rate of 81.82%.
BP is under pressure as activist investor Elliott Management pushes for strategic changes and cost-cutting measures. Despite this uncertainty, history suggests a potential upside - BP’s stock has gained an average of +5.57% from March 15 to May 20, with a 76% win rate.
Unilever is navigating a corporate shakeup and rumored acquisition of Vitabiotics while entering one of its strongest seasonal windows, boasting an 85% win rate from February 18 to May 15. This bullish trend aligns with the company’s strategic push into the health and wellness market. Investors are watching closely to see if historical seasonality and strategic moves can drive momentum through Q2.
Adidas' stock shows a historical pattern of seasonal weakness from February 19 to March 7, with an annualized return of -56.90% and only a 30% chance of gains. However, this dip often leads to a strong rebound from March 8 to mid-May, boasting a +60.53% annualized return and a 90% win rate.
Historical trends suggest that EUR/USD tends to strengthen between February 12 and March 17, posting an average return of +0.70% with a 75% win rate. As the Federal Reserve and ECB navigate economic uncertainty, traders are watching for key macro catalysts.
As the February 12 CPI release approaches, traders brace for volatility in the Nasdaq 100. With inflation expectations rising and Fed Chair Powell set to speak, the index faces a pivotal moment. However, historical seasonality tells a different story—showing an 87.69% annualized return and a 65% win rate around CPI events.
