The US election influences stock prices even beyond election day. For the markets, the year of the four-year election cycle we are in is crucial. In the current post-election year, seasonals suggest a stronger upcoming seasonal decline.
Gold typically enters its strongest seasonal phase in the second half of the year, with consistent gains driven by rising jewelry demand. Over the past 25 years, it has delivered an average return of nearly 10% during this period, making seasonality a powerful factor to consider when investing in gold.
Bitcoin is known for its extreme price swings, but it also exhibits seasonal patterns. Historically, the period from May 21 to September 25 has been particularly weak, with an average annualized decline of -17.61% over the past seven years. Losses were especially severe in recent years, including a 36.19% drop in 2022. In contrast, the period from late September to May has yielded far stronger gains.
Not all investment strategies perform equally throughout the year—some have their own "season." Right now, it’s the prime season for dividend stocks. Our analysis compares the John Hancock Premium Dividend Fund (PDT) to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), revealing how dividend stocks typically outperform during the summer. Now is a compelling moment to consider a shift toward dividend-oriented strategies.
Bitcoin’s seasonal pattern reveals potential risks. With the detrending feature in Seasonax, you can easily identify when Bitcoin is likely to experience declines, helping you minimize risks and optimize your investments.
Learn why the year within the election cycle matters more to market performance than the election outcome itself. Uncover key trends, including gold's potential rise after a weak start and the Nasdaq's challenging February-March period.
The Russell 2000 shows a striking seasonal pattern depending on whether the year ends with an odd or even digit. In even years, like 2024, small-cap stocks underperform significantly compared to the S&P 500, with a widening gap from March to October.
Gold has gained 50% in two years, but Newmont Mining has lagged behind. Seasonality shows its strongest phase is from November 27th to April 11th, with an average gain of 24.04%. Could now be the time to catch up?
Elections will take place in the USA on November 5th. In the media you can read a lot about the candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Certainly the political side is very important. But for you, as an investor, it is also important to consider how the markets behave during the elections.
You probably know the saying: “Sell in May and go away!” There is a lot of truth in this classic. Over the last 64 years, an investment in the Dow Jones achieved an average return of 6.60% in the winter half of the year, but only 0.09% in the summer half of the year from May - so practically nothing.
