The turn of the year, 2023 into 2024, is just around the corner. As an investor, you may well be wondering what the new year will be like.
In terms of politics, the US presidential elections are approaching. Although the new - or old - president will not be inaugurated until 2025, elections also influence share prices in their run up. This election cycle is in fact known as the four-year cycle.
As you may have noticed, the price of gold recently touched the psychologically important round mark of USD 2,000 per troy ounce, before coming back down again.
If you are a sports fan, you are probably already looking forward to the date: on July 26, 2024, the next Summer Olympics will begin in Paris. Athletes from all over the world will compete in thousands of events. Nearly ten million tickets will be on sale.
Currently, implied volatility, as calculated from option prices on the US stock market, is relatively low. The Bank of America recently found that there has not been a cheaper time to hedge over a twelve-month period since 2008.
This raises these questions for you as an investor: has a phase of permanently low volatility now been reached? Or is the current low volatility merely the calm before the storm?
Along with annual seasonality, the four-year cycle is one of the most important cycles on the U.S. stock market. This cycle is also called the election cycle because it is related to the election of the U.S. president.
As well as the seasonality of the year, there are other calendrical cycles such as the week or the month. Today, we are going to consider the performance of the S&P 500, analysed by looking at the days of the week from the year 2000. Believe it or not, there are individual days of the week that perform significantly better than others!
You may be asking yourself the same question. Clearly, whether you invest in cryptos or not, the consideration of seasonality in a new asset class is exciting.
It is time to take a look at Bitcoin's seasonal performance!
In this Seasonal Insight you will learn about the 5 Ways to Use Seasonality when Investing
The "turn of the month" effect has frequently been studied in relation to the U.S. stock markets. It shows that stocks tend to rise more around the turn of the month than around the middle of the month.
Event Studies provide a completely new way to improve your investment strategies.
