With so many uncertainties ahead of the Fed meeting it can be very helpful to see the reaction of the S&P500 over the last 5 years out of Fed meetings! The bias for heavier selling is clearly there, so this can help frame expectations on a surprise hawkish decision.Â
Today is the Federal Reserve’s hotly anticipated interest rate meeting. Expectations in short-term interest rate markets are for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times next year. Now this seems a very dovish expectation.
Today is the Federal Reserve’s hotly anticipated interest rate meeting. Expectations in short-term interest rate markets are for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates four times next year. Now this seems a very dovish expectation.
Yesterday we saw a big miss in the US CPI print which allowed the S&P 500 to move significantly higher on ‘peak Fed narrative’ hopes. Seasonax’s event feature allowed us to expect upside in the S&P 500 in the event of a miss and the same feature leads us to expect potential for dip buying in the S&P 500 today. Â
Over the last few days, markets have been confronted by a confused message. On the one hand, the Feds recent messaging has become more dovish indicating that the recent surge in yields could mean the federal reserve doesn’t need to hike in November. However, on the other hand, the PPI print on Wednesday surprised significantly to the upside indicating the Fed had more work to do. Â
