Despite growing economic concerns, the S&P 500 has historically shown resilience around US GDP releases. The IMF’s recent downgrade of US growth to 1.8% for 2025 underscores growing recession risks, yet seasonal data suggests the index could still rally. Market participants are closely watching how this week’s GDP data might shape future policy and equity sentiment.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has historically posted strong gains between May 1 and May 25, with a 66.67% win rate. However, this year’s macro backdrop could disrupt that pattern. Mounting trade tensions and declining confidence in U.S. policy undermine traditional safe-haven flows. According to Deutsche Bank, we may be in the early stages of a “dramatic regime change” that challenges the dollar's status.
Copper, often seen as a barometer for global economic health, is flashing fresh warning signs. After surging on tariff speculation, prices have reversed sharply, aligning with a historically weak seasonal period from April to June. This seasonal slump is now being compounded by recession fears and collapsing US demand. If macro risks intensify, the downside for copper prices could deepen significantly.
You may be surprised to learn that platinum, despite facing a structural deficit in 2025, historically underperforms during late spring to early summer. From April 29 to June 24, the metal has dropped over the past 15 years, with a low win rate of just 20%. This weakness often stems from cyclical industrial slowdowns and seasonal investor flows. Even with declining supply and tight above-ground stocks, the pattern remains firmly intact.
The Australian dollar often faces seasonal weakness from April 21 to May 23.This pattern could be further stressed by rising trade tensions and renewed protectionist rhetoric from the US. The AUD, being sensitive to global trade flows and commodity demand, is particularly exposed to any escalation in tariffs, especially those involving China. If risk appetite deteriorates, further downside in AUDUSD is likely. However, surprises in Chinese stimulus or a softer Fed outlook could shift the tide.
Copper prices have rallied sharply this year, largely driven by tariff fears. However, history shows a strong seasonal tendency for copper to weaken between mid-April and late June — a period that often delivers negative returns. As traders await final decisions on tariffs and face swelling US inventories, the risks of a correction are rising. Seasonal data, soft Chinese demand, and speculative positioning could all collide to drive prices lower.
The USD/MXN currency pair typically strengthens between April 16 and April 27, showing gains in 73.33% of the past 15 years. This 10-day window has delivered an average move of +0.83% and an impressive annualised return of over 31%. With macro drivers such as geopolitical risks and tariff concerns rising, historical patterns may align with current sentiment. A strong technical support zone near 20.00 adds further clarity for trade setups.
HSBC Holdings has come under pressure amid renewed US-China trade tensions, but history offers a compelling reason for optimism. Over the past 15 years, the bank’s shares have shown a strong seasonal pattern between April 14 and June 7, delivering average returns of +2.29%. If global trade sentiment shifts or Chinese stimulus emerges, HSBC’s Asia exposure could turn from liability to advantage. Investors may want to take note before the window closes.
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) has demonstrated a consistent tendency to rally from early April to mid-May. Over the past 20 years, the stock has gained in 80% of cases during this period, delivering an average return of +2.45%. With the stock in a technical uptrend and defensive sectors gaining favor, this seasonal pattern may offer a compelling edge.
The USD/JPY pair has shown a seasonal tendency to weaken on days when US CPI is released, especially after soft inflation surprises. A historical average return of -0.14% on CPI day reflects the market’s sensitivity to disinflation. With the next release set for April 10, traders are watching closely. A lower-than-expected print could reinforce bets on Fed rate cuts and push the yen higher.
