If you notice you can see that the seasonal pattern becomes very strong after the middle of December. That is not for no reason. The middle of December marks the last Fed meeting, so investors are often confident to take their gold position once the path for US yields and the USD is more predictable with the Fed having finished their last interest rate meeting for the year.
The seasonals are saying that gold could be about to break its all-time high. The average return in gold between the 13th of December and February the 20th is over 4%. If the seasonal pattern repeats this year, according to its average, that will take gold to fresh all time new highs!
When the US dollar falls and real yields drop too, that tends to be a great environment for gold buying. The last few weeks have seen significant falls in the dollar on expectations that the Federal Reserve has reached the peak in interest rates.
As you may have noticed, the price of gold recently touched the psychologically important round mark of USD 2,000 per troy ounce, before coming back down again.
US CPI is expected to pull back to 3.6% from August’s print of 3.7% and the core is expected to fall for the sixth month in a row down to 4.1% from the prior reading of 4.3%. This should keep yields and the USD mildly pressured.
Taking a look at the US Labour report there is a chance that gold can recover it’s recent losses if we see a big miss in the report. Remember that the Fed sees the labour market through an inflationary or…
Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting will also be a meeting where the Fed outline their dot plot on rate projections.
Gold prices are in a major focus right now ahead of the US CPI print due to be released on Wednesday at 1:30 UK time. Gold is extremely sensitive to US interest rate expectations and dollar moves. This has meant…
The case for buying gold has been increasing over the last couple of weeks due to increased expectations that the Federal reserve will need to stop hiking interest rates as US economic activity show signs of slowing down.
The recent narrative has been a tough headwind for gold as bonds continued their sell off on the first two weeks of August. Expectations of higher rates needed for longer needed to deal with stickier inflation has been the driver.…
On average gold has gained 1.87% through the month of August. The months of July and August tend to be strong for gold seasonally and the appeal of gold could be set to grow further over the coming months. Gold…
