The S&P 500 often slows in March after strong early-year gains. Over the past 15 years, returns have been flat and volatility has picked up mid-month. But history shows momentum tends to improve from April through June, marking a clear seasonal shift.
Historical data suggest that recurring seasonal patterns emerge around major sporting events and the decennial cycle. These patterns point to recurring shifts in market behavior at certain times of the year, offering a structured way to analyze historical market tendencies.
The year 2026 is a so-called midterm election year in the US four-year election cycle. Historically, it is the weakest period for the stock market, with below-average returns for the Dow Jones. Nevertheless, even in such years, targeted opportunities arise outside the overall market.
The year-end rally on the stock markets has already begun! The DAX and S&P 500 have statistically shown strong performance from mid-November to early January. Historically, there have been many positive years with attractive returns. A good time to keep a close eye on the markets.
The US election influences stock prices even beyond election day. For the markets, the year of the four-year election cycle we are in is crucial. In the current post-election year, seasonals suggest a stronger upcoming seasonal decline.
The Nasdaq 100 historically enters a powerful bullish window with a 93.33% win rate over the past 15 years and an average gain of 3.86%. This setup has proven highly consistent. Fueled by strong Q2 earnings and lower summer volume, this period offers a high-probability opportunity for traders. If the pattern holds, we could see another clean move higher before August volatility sets in.
Did you know the S&P 500 has never lost between June 27 and July 23 over the past 14 years? With an average gain of 3.31% and a Sharpe ratio of 4.45, this seasonal stretch stands out as one of the most reliable in the US equity market. As earnings season heats up, mega-cap tech stocks often act as a catalyst for midsummer momentum.
The FTSE 100 has a strong seasonal tendency to weaken from June 9 to June 27, posting losses in 13 of the last 15 years. Despite the index recently pushing toward new highs, historical data points to a period of caution. A surge in UK defense spending has lifted select stocks, but may not be enough to offset broader market pressures.
Many investors are familiar with the phrase “Sell in May and go away,” but the Nasdaq 100 often defies that logic. Over the past decade, the tech-heavy index has delivered an average return of +3.40% from May 19 to June 7, with a remarkable 90% win rate. Strong seasonal momentum, driven by optimism in AI and supportive macro factors, continues to offer opportunities. Recent technical indicators also support a bullish setup.
Despite growing economic concerns, the S&P 500 has historically shown resilience around US GDP releases. The IMF’s recent downgrade of US growth to 1.8% for 2025 underscores growing recession risks, yet seasonal data suggests the index could still rally. Market participants are closely watching how this week’s GDP data might shape future policy and equity sentiment.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has historically posted strong gains between May 1 and May 25, with a 66.67% win rate. However, this year’s macro backdrop could disrupt that pattern. Mounting trade tensions and declining confidence in U.S. policy undermine traditional safe-haven flows. According to Deutsche Bank, we may be in the early stages of a “dramatic regime change” that challenges the dollar's status.
