Oil markets may be on the verge of a major geopolitical shift as speculation grows over a potential US-Saudi-Russia deal. Meanwhile, crude oil's seasonal pattern points to a historically strong period from March to July, with an average gain of +4.84%. Will this alignment of market forces drive oil prices higher?
Shell PLC is undergoing a major executive reshuffle just ahead of its March 25 strategy update, a move that could influence investor sentiment. Historically, Shell’s stock has gained an average of +7.91% from mid-March to early June, supported by seasonal oil demand and corporate developments. If the upcoming strategy presentation is well-received, it may act as a catalyst for the stock to follow its strong seasonal trend.
BASF SE is implementing cost-cutting measures and restructuring initiatives, including a potential IPO for its Agricultural Solutions unit. Historically, the stock shows seasonal strength from March to June, with an average gain of +6.73%.
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc is undergoing yet another restructuring, but historical seasonal trends suggest a challenging period ahead. Over the past six years, the stock has shown a consistent decline between March and mid-May, averaging -26.45%.
Walmart faces profit concerns, but historical data suggests strong seasonal performance from March to April. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and rising costs, the stock has shown a consistent upward trend during this period.
Shell Plc’s latest global energy outlook suggests that artificial intelligence could extend oil demand growth well into the 2030s, potentially boosting hydrocarbon resilience. Historically, Shell has delivered strong returns from February 27 to May 28, with an average gain of +6.86% and a win rate of 81.82%.
Boeing shares react significantly to airplane accidents, particularly when caused by design flaws. A seasonal analysis shows that such incidents result in an average share price decline of -4.45%, with losses persisting for weeks.
BP is under pressure as activist investor Elliott Management pushes for strategic changes and cost-cutting measures. Despite this uncertainty, history suggests a potential upside - BP’s stock has gained an average of +5.57% from March 15 to May 20, with a 76% win rate.
Unilever is navigating a corporate shakeup and rumored acquisition of Vitabiotics while entering one of its strongest seasonal windows, boasting an 85% win rate from February 18 to May 15. This bullish trend aligns with the company’s strategic push into the health and wellness market. Investors are watching closely to see if historical seasonality and strategic moves can drive momentum through Q2.
Adidas' stock shows a historical pattern of seasonal weakness from February 19 to March 7, with an annualized return of -56.90% and only a 30% chance of gains. However, this dip often leads to a strong rebound from March 8 to mid-May, boasting a +60.53% annualized return and a 90% win rate.
