Looking to trade with more confidence? Giles Coghlan shares expert analysis to help you spot opportunities and navigate risks in equities, forex, and commodities.
His clear, actionable outlooks are trusted by traders worldwide and featured in Reuters, WSJ, Business Insider, FT Adviser, NBC, and more.
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The FTSE 100 recently surged to a record high of 8,505.22, supported by factors like a weaker British pound, robust corporate buyback programs, and strong sectoral performance. Historical seasonal patterns suggest a potential for further gains, with an average return of +1.68% between January 31 and February 27 and an 80% win rate over the past decade.
President Trump’s second term brings significant implications for the U.S. dollar (USD), driven by his fiscal and trade policies. Seasonal analysis of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) shows a reliable upward trend from February 1st to March 15th, with an average gain of +1.55% and a 90% success rate. This historical strength, paired with supportive technical factors, presents a compelling opportunity for traders.
The Bank of Japan's policy meeting on January 23-24, 2025, is set to shape the USD/JPY outlook. With an 80% probability of a rate hike from 0.25% to 0.5%, historical patterns suggest a +0.53% average move in USD/JPY on the day of the decision, with a 75% winning rate.
The Bank of Japan's upcoming rate decision on January 24 could have a significant impact on USD/JPY. Will a rate hike strengthen the yen, or will the central bank hold steady?
With an average return of +5.95% and an 86.67% winning percentage from February 3 to April 29, GSK is entering a seasonal sweet spot. Recent oncology-focused acquisitions further strengthen its growth potential.
The upcoming UK CPI report is critical for shaping expectations around the BoE’s monetary policy. With services inflation at 5% y/y in November, well above the 2% target, the report’s outcome could significantly impact GBPUSD. A softer-than-expected print may pressure GBP, with past CPI events showing falls of up to -1.97%. Traders should watch the 1.2100 support level and consider historical patterns to refine their strategies.
USD/JPY shows a strong seasonal pattern for gains between January 6 and April 6, with a 65% win rate and an average return of +1.56% over the last 20 years. As yen weakness continues and global yields rise, will the pair's historical strength prevail in Q1 2025?
United Airlines Holdings Inc. (UAL) plans to deploy SpaceX's Starlink for inflight Wi-Fi, targeting its regional jets in spring and aiming for a broader rollout by 2025. Historical patterns show UAL shares have risen by an average of +9.90% from January 3 to February 16 over the past six years, with a 100% success rate. Will Starlink's cutting-edge technology and strategic integration bolster United's share price and passenger satisfaction?
Discover the Santa Rally in the S&P 500: A seasonal trend from December 20 to December 27 with an average gain of 1.01% and an 86.67% win rate over the past 15 years. Explore the psychological, technical, and market dynamics driving this festive phenomenon.
Can Barratt Developments and Persimmon Plc capitalize on Labour’s housing reforms and seasonal trends? With seasonal returns exceeding 6% for both housebuilders in December-February, the alignment of policy and performance creates a unique opportunity for investors.
