The year 2026 is a so-called midterm election year in the US four-year election cycle. Historically, it is the weakest period for the stock market, with below-average returns for the Dow Jones. Nevertheless, even in such years, targeted opportunities arise outside the overall market.
The US election influences stock prices even beyond election day. For the markets, the year of the four-year election cycle we are in is crucial. In the current post-election year, seasonals suggest a stronger upcoming seasonal decline.
The turn of the year, 2023 into 2024, is just around the corner. As an investor, you may well be wondering what the new year will be like.
In terms of politics, the US presidential elections are approaching. Although the new - or old - president will not be inaugurated until 2025, elections also influence share prices in their run up. This election cycle is in fact known as the four-year cycle.
Even years after a U.S. presidential election, markets are influenced by where they stand in the four-year election cycle, with historical data showing the midterm year as the weakest phase for equities compared to election, pre-election, and post-election years, though selective opportunities can still emerge in specific sectors, stocks, or commodities.
Article in German Dear Investor, 2020 is drawing to a close. It had a dreadful surprise in store for us with the outbreak of the Corona pandemic, which had a strong impact on financial markets as well. Furthermore, US presidential…
