The Weakest Month has Begun!
At the beginning of August, the stock markets suffered a collapse. In fact, August is a seasonally weak month – since 1970 it has been the second weakest in the annual cycle.
But there is an even weaker month: September.
Dimitri Speck
Dimitri Speck is a renowned financial analyst and fund manager, who has earned accolades for his innovative seasonal investment strategy. Dimitri is a prolific writer, with one of the biggest stock market letters in Germany, along with several books. He won several awards, including the Hedge Fund Journal’s award for the best European commodity fund in 2013 and the Scope Innovations Award in 2018.
Seasonality Works!
Last month’s issue was titled "Volatility: The Calm Before the Storm?". It explained that volatility mostly increased seasonally in the period from mid-July. It also stated that the "purchase of volatility products" is possibly appropriate.
How You Can Systematically Increase Your Profits with Seasonality
Most investors have probably heard of the two seasonal patterns shown – the Sell-in-May pattern and the autumn rally. However, there are many more seasonal and cyclical investment opportunities – and what only a few investors know will help you the most. Firstly, there are seasonal trends in other values as well. These include...
Volatility: The Calm Before the Storm?
Article in German Dear Investor, Volatility, the tendency of prices to fluctuate, is not just an academic construct – there are also products such as ETFs based on it. Volatility has recently been quite low by historical standards. Can we…
Gold Performance Over the Year and the Month
Around 50% of current gold production flows into jewelry production. This has a considerable influence on the price of gold. The Indian wedding season in autumn, the Christmas season and the Chinese New Year increase the demand for gold for jewelry production, with purchases by jewelers taking place in the run-up to the respective festivities.
ZEW DAX Example: How to use Innovative Event Studies!
In this environment, many investors are turning their attention to economic indicators. One of the most important for Germany is the ZEW Index. More than 350 institutional investors are surveyed for their assessment of the economy. The ZEW Index is published monthly around the middle of the month.
What Threatens at the FED Meeting? Events Offer Systematic Benefits for Investors.
The next Fed meeting will take place in just over a week, from April 30 to May 1. In view of a higher-than-expected inflation rate, many investors are wondering whether the Fed will signal interest rate cuts this time, and by how much, and what this means for share prices.
Sprint Into the Performance Spring With Adidas!
In the past 25 years, the share price has risen in 23 out of 25 cases between March 20 and May 9. This corresponds to a high hit rate of 92%!
The annualized performance is also very good at 71.73%.
How Can I Find Really Bad Seasonal Patterns?
You are probably familiar with common loss limitation measures, such as diversification or the use of stop losses. At Seasonax, we always advise you to take such measures. Today, however, I would like to show you how to recognize seasonal patterns that look good at first glance, but are actually bad - and which you should not act on.
Crude Oil: Is The Next Price Surge Coming?
Some seasonal trends are counter-intuitive.
The price of crude oil is falling despite the start of the heating season in the fall. Would you have known?