Looking to trade with more confidence? Giles Coghlan shares expert analysis to help you spot opportunities and navigate risks in equities, forex, and commodities.
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June has historically been a challenging month for gold. Data shows a consistent drop between June 6 and July 6, with an average decline of -1.46% and gains in just 28% of years. This weakness often aligns with lower physical demand and subdued trading activity. While a recent breakout may appear bullish, seasonal trends still warrant caution.
The FTSE 100 has a strong seasonal tendency to weaken from June 9 to June 27, posting losses in 13 of the last 15 years. Despite the index recently pushing toward new highs, historical data points to a period of caution. A surge in UK defense spending has lifted select stocks, but may not be enough to offset broader market pressures.
Apple’s stock has historically surged in summer, gaining an average of +12.38% between June and September. With WWDC this week and AI expectations rising, the stage may be set to ignite the next rally. Despite macro headwinds, technicals and timing look favorable. This seasonal window has delivered consistent upside for over a decade, often outperforming broader tech benchmarks.
Silver has recently enjoyed a strong rally, driven by safe-haven demand and momentum across the precious metals space. However, early June has historically marked a period of weakness for silver prices, with a notable negative seasonal pattern. Silver has shown an average move of -1.66% and just a 33% win rate over the past 15 years, in this period. Still, technical and macro factors suggest the dip could be temporary.
Gold has been a strong performer this year, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank demand, yet history shows June tends to be the weakest month for gold prices. According to a 25-year Seasonax study, gold averages a loss of 0.8% from June 1 to July 1, with only a 40% chance of gains during this period. This downturn is often linked to reduced physical demand and a lull in global jewelry consumption.
The seasonal pattern for EUR/USD from May 29 to June 6 favors euro strength, with a 78.57% win rate and +1.14% average return. This year, the “Sell USD” narrative may gain traction as Moody’s downgrade and China’s reduced Treasury exposure highlight US fiscal concerns. The pair nears key resistance levels that could trigger another leg higher. However, risks remain if the Fed turns hawkish or economic data surprises. The seasonal setup offers timely insight into current macro trends.
General Motors exhibits one of the most consistent bullish seasonal patterns among U.S. auto stocks between May 26 and June 8. Over the past 10 years, GM has posted gains in 8 out of 10 years during this period, with an average return of +6.28%. As the EV tariff debate heats up, GM’s short-term performance aligns with seasonal strength. Its EV strategy faces risk from shifting U.S. policies, making this both an opportunity and a potential inflection point.
Nvidia has a strong history of rallying after its Q1 earnings, with consistent gains supported by seasonal trends. As AI momentum builds and investors focus on data centre growth, the setup looks bullish both fundamentally and technically. However, elevated expectations and market volatility could still influence the outcome.
Home Depot tends to rally in late May, with an 86.67% win rate and an average gain of +1.30% over the past 15 years. This year, seasonal strength is reinforced by potential U.S.–China trade relief and a technical support zone near $353. With earnings on May 20, a bounce could be in play, though risks remain. Strategic investors should watch for confirmation from both fundamentals and the charts.
EUR/USD tends to show reliable strength from May 23 to June 7. Over the past 10 years, the pair has posted positive returns in 8 of them, averaging a gain of +1.00%. With macro tailwinds and recent price action consolidating near 1.1200, bulls may be eyeing a breakout. Technically, the 1.130 level is within reach if support at 1.1150 holds. However, traders should remain alert to Fed rhetoric and US inflation data that could disrupt the seasonal pattern.
