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Many investors are familiar with the phrase “Sell in May and go away,” but the Nasdaq 100 often defies that logic. Over the past decade, the tech-heavy index has delivered an average return of +3.40% from May 19 to June 7, with a remarkable 90% win rate. Strong seasonal momentum, driven by optimism in AI and supportive macro factors, continues to offer opportunities. Recent technical indicators also support a bullish setup.
Novo Nordisk may be under pressure following a guidance cut, but seasonal trends offer a potential silver lining. Historically, the stock has delivered average gains of +2.06% between May 17 and June 11, with an 80% win rate. With technical support emerging and sentiment showing signs of stabilizing, investors may find an opportunity for a short-term rebound.
USD/CHF tends to underperform from mid-May to early August, with historical data pointing to a seasonal slump. Over the past 25 years, the average move during this period has been -2.06%, with a win rate of only 32%. Currently, traders should watch the 0.8400 level closely, a critical barrier that aligns with a former triple bottom. A rejection here could set up a renewed move lower, especially if macro fundamentals align with the seasonal trend.
JD.com is entering a historically strong seasonal window ahead of its earnings on May 13. Over the past decade, this period has delivered positive returns in 8 out of 10 years, with an average gain of +5.70%. While broader market conditions remain mixed, JD.com's seasonal momentum could offer an opportunity for upside if earnings meet expectations.
The British pound may be heading into a vulnerable phase. As the Bank of England edges closer to rate cuts, historical patterns suggest a consistent downside reaction in GBP/USD. On average, the pair declines 1.11% in the four days following a BoE rate cut. With resistance at 1.3000 and macro headwinds building, traders should watch for renewed bearish momentum.
The EUR/USD pair historically underperforms in May, and this year appears to be no different. With an average decline of -0.96% between May 5 and May 30 over the past 15 years, and a low win rate of just 33.33% for bullish moves, the odds are stacked against the euro. Technically, 1.1200 is the key battleground, as the euro tests both horizontal resistance and a long-term breakout. Meanwhile, macro factors such as ECB-Fed divergence and weak eurozone growth only add to the downside risk.
Nomura Holdings is making bold moves to expand its U.S. footprint, including the recent $1.8 billion acquisition of Macquarie’s public asset management business. However, history suggests the stock faces a tough seasonal stretch between May and September, with an average return of -8.10% and a low win rate of just 28%. As U.S. credit spreads tighten and recession fears persist, Nomura’s strategic timing may face added scrutiny.
Despite growing economic concerns, the S&P 500 has historically shown resilience around US GDP releases. The IMF’s recent downgrade of US growth to 1.8% for 2025 underscores growing recession risks, yet seasonal data suggests the index could still rally. Market participants are closely watching how this week’s GDP data might shape future policy and equity sentiment.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has historically posted strong gains between May 1 and May 25, with a 66.67% win rate. However, this year’s macro backdrop could disrupt that pattern. Mounting trade tensions and declining confidence in U.S. policy undermine traditional safe-haven flows. According to Deutsche Bank, we may be in the early stages of a “dramatic regime change” that challenges the dollar's status.
You may be surprised to learn that platinum, despite facing a structural deficit in 2025, historically underperforms during late spring to early summer. From April 29 to June 24, the metal has dropped over the past 15 years, with a low win rate of just 20%. This weakness often stems from cyclical industrial slowdowns and seasonal investor flows. Even with declining supply and tight above-ground stocks, the pattern remains firmly intact.
