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Oil markets may be on the verge of a major geopolitical shift as speculation grows over a potential US-Saudi-Russia deal. Meanwhile, crude oil's seasonal pattern points to a historically strong period from March to July, with an average gain of +4.84%. Will this alignment of market forces drive oil prices higher?
Shell PLC is undergoing a major executive reshuffle just ahead of its March 25 strategy update, a move that could influence investor sentiment. Historically, Shell’s stock has gained an average of +7.91% from mid-March to early June, supported by seasonal oil demand and corporate developments. If the upcoming strategy presentation is well-received, it may act as a catalyst for the stock to follow its strong seasonal trend.
EUR/USD has a strong seasonal track record from March 10 to March 17, with gains 75% of the time with an annualized return of +32.26%. Yield spreads and fiscal policies could further support the euro’s strength, while technical signals point to a potential breakout. However, key risks such as US inflation data and Fed policy shifts could introduce volatility.
Historically, the S&P 500 has shown an upside bias after Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) releases, with an average return of +0.17% in the following 10 days. With Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts, this NFP report could be pivotal for market trends.
BASF SE is implementing cost-cutting measures and restructuring initiatives, including a potential IPO for its Agricultural Solutions unit. Historically, the stock shows seasonal strength from March to June, with an average gain of +6.73%.
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Plc is undergoing yet another restructuring, but historical seasonal trends suggest a challenging period ahead. Over the past six years, the stock has shown a consistent decline between March and mid-May, averaging -26.45%.
Walmart faces profit concerns, but historical data suggests strong seasonal performance from March to April. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and rising costs, the stock has shown a consistent upward trend during this period.
The New Zealand dollar historically weakens against the US dollar from late February to mid-May, averaging a -2.21% move. With RBNZ's rate cuts and potential US tariffs fueling USD strength, NZD/USD could see further downside.
Historically, the DAX has gained +1.72% in the 16 days following German elections, with an 80% success rate. As political uncertainty clears, market-friendly policies could fuel another rally. Will this election follow the trend?
Shell Plc’s latest global energy outlook suggests that artificial intelligence could extend oil demand growth well into the 2030s, potentially boosting hydrocarbon resilience. Historically, Shell has delivered strong returns from February 27 to May 28, with an average gain of +6.86% and a win rate of 81.82%.
