Silver typically shows strength from July 17 to July 31, delivering a 1.59% average return with a 64% win rate over the past 25 years. With hedge fund positioning stretched and open interest hitting critical highs, the market may be on the verge of a breakout.
Gold typically enters its strongest seasonal phase in the second half of the year, with consistent gains driven by rising jewelry demand. Over the past 25 years, it has delivered an average return of nearly 10% during this period, making seasonality a powerful factor to consider when investing in gold.
Silver tends to perform strongly during the summer, and the historical data backs it up. From June 30 to September 1, silver (XAG/USD) has shown a consistent seasonal pattern of strength over the past 15 years, with a strong risk/reward profile. This seasonal trend, combined with a bullish technical setup, suggests potential upside toward $37–$38 if momentum holds.
Crude oil markets enter a historically strong window from June 24 to July 1, with WTI posting an average gain of 2.09% and an 80% win rate over the past 15 years. This year, seasonal momentum aligns with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Strikes between Israel and Iran are increasing supply fears, especially around the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. Traders are bracing for volatility and potential price spikes.
From mid-June to early October, soybeans have posted losses in 11 of the past 14 years, averaging a -4.87% decline. With a win rate of just 21.43%, it’s one of the weakest seasonal periods. In 2025, trade tensions and weak Chinese demand could intensify this trend. Without a shift in trade dynamics, further downside is likely.
June has historically been a challenging month for gold. Data shows a consistent drop between June 6 and July 6, with an average decline of -1.46% and gains in just 28% of years. This weakness often aligns with lower physical demand and subdued trading activity. While a recent breakout may appear bullish, seasonal trends still warrant caution.
Silver has recently enjoyed a strong rally, driven by safe-haven demand and momentum across the precious metals space. However, early June has historically marked a period of weakness for silver prices, with a notable negative seasonal pattern. Silver has shown an average move of -1.66% and just a 33% win rate over the past 15 years, in this period. Still, technical and macro factors suggest the dip could be temporary.
Gold has been a strong performer this year, driven by geopolitical risks and central bank demand, yet history shows June tends to be the weakest month for gold prices. According to a 25-year Seasonax study, gold averages a loss of 0.8% from June 1 to July 1, with only a 40% chance of gains during this period. This downturn is often linked to reduced physical demand and a lull in global jewelry consumption.
Copper, often seen as a barometer for global economic health, is flashing fresh warning signs. After surging on tariff speculation, prices have reversed sharply, aligning with a historically weak seasonal period from April to June. This seasonal slump is now being compounded by recession fears and collapsing US demand. If macro risks intensify, the downside for copper prices could deepen significantly.
You may be surprised to learn that platinum, despite facing a structural deficit in 2025, historically underperforms during late spring to early summer. From April 29 to June 24, the metal has dropped over the past 15 years, with a low win rate of just 20%. This weakness often stems from cyclical industrial slowdowns and seasonal investor flows. Even with declining supply and tight above-ground stocks, the pattern remains firmly intact.
