UK CPI data has historically pressured GBP/USD lower, especially when inflation prints fall short of expectations. Over the past 10 years, GBP/USD has shown an average drop of –0.03% on CPI days with a 47% win rate. With the BoE signaling a dovish stance, traders may respond quickly to any weak inflation surprise. This setup could once again lead to a familiar summer decline for sterling.
Despite growing economic concerns, the S&P 500 has historically shown resilience around US GDP releases. The IMF’s recent downgrade of US growth to 1.8% for 2025 underscores growing recession risks, yet seasonal data suggests the index could still rally. Market participants are closely watching how this week’s GDP data might shape future policy and equity sentiment.
With UK inflation proving stickier than expected, the Bank of England remains hesitant to turn dovish. As the next CPI release nears, EUR/GBP has historically shown a tendency to decline, with GBP maintaining strength. This trend suggests that a higher-than-expected CPI could lead to continued GBP outperformance in the coming days.
The upcoming Fed meeting could weigh on USD/JPY, with historical data showing a bearish bias post-FOMC decisions. An average decline of -0.07% and a 48.75% win rate suggest downside risks, especially if the Fed signals more rate cuts. A dovish stance may push USD/JPY lower, while a hawkish surprise could provide support. Key technical levels, like the 147.50 support zone, will be crucial for traders.
Historically, the S&P 500 has shown an upside bias after Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) releases, with an average return of +0.17% in the following 10 days. With Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts, this NFP report could be pivotal for market trends.
Historically, the DAX has gained +1.72% in the 16 days following German elections, with an 80% success rate. As political uncertainty clears, market-friendly policies could fuel another rally. Will this election follow the trend?
As the February 12 CPI release approaches, traders brace for volatility in the Nasdaq 100. With inflation expectations rising and Fed Chair Powell set to speak, the index faces a pivotal moment. However, historical seasonality tells a different story—showing an 87.69% annualized return and a 65% win rate around CPI events.
Elections will take place in the USA on November 5th. In the media you can read a lot about the candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Certainly the political side is very important. But for you, as an investor, it is also important to consider how the markets behave during the elections.
One of the primary implications of a Triple Witching Day is the surge in trading volume and market volatility. Traders and institutional investors scramble to offset, close, or roll over their positions.
Article in German Dear Investor, The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, on 17-18 September 2024, is a hotly anticipated date in the financial world. Many experts anticipate the Fed will hold rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%, waiting for inflation…
