The year 2026 is a so-called midterm election year in the US four-year election cycle. Historically, it is the weakest period for the stock market, with below-average returns for the Dow Jones. Nevertheless, even in such years, targeted opportunities arise outside the overall market.
The legend says that the phrase originally came from an old English saying: "Sell in May and go away, and come back on St. Leger's Day." This advice was linked to British aristocrats who used to leave the hot city of London during the summer and return after the St. Leger's Stakes horse race in September. What began as a lifestyle choice for the wealthy has turned into a financial strategy observed in stock markets globally.
The turn of the year, 2023 into 2024, is just around the corner. As an investor, you may well be wondering what the new year will be like.
In terms of politics, the US presidential elections are approaching. Although the new - or old - president will not be inaugurated until 2025, elections also influence share prices in their run up. This election cycle is in fact known as the four-year cycle.
As the end of the calendar year approaches, whispers of a stock market rally begin to circulate among investors and financial analysts. But is this so-called "year-end rally" a mere myth?
Currently, implied volatility, as calculated from option prices on the US stock market, is relatively low. The Bank of America recently found that there has not been a cheaper time to hedge over a twelve-month period since 2008.
This raises these questions for you as an investor: has a phase of permanently low volatility now been reached? Or is the current low volatility merely the calm before the storm?
Along with annual seasonality, the four-year cycle is one of the most important cycles on the U.S. stock market. This cycle is also called the election cycle because it is related to the election of the U.S. president.
Article in German Dear Investor, As you know, Joe Biden was elected as the President of the United States in 2020. However, did you know that there is a typical four-year cycle that follows elections? The course of the stock…
Even years after a U.S. presidential election, markets are influenced by where they stand in the four-year election cycle, with historical data showing the midterm year as the weakest phase for equities compared to election, pre-election, and post-election years, though selective opportunities can still emerge in specific sectors, stocks, or commodities.
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