There are many myths surrounding the topic of seasonality among traders and scientists alike. Seasonal patterns in the stock market are a topic of their own. Are regularly recurring patterns a purely random phenomenon, or can they be explained by certain market behavior? The fact is that there are regular recurring patterns in the markets that can provide a significant advantage when taken into consideration in decision-making.
At the last Bank of England meeting two of the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Mann and Haskell, pulled back from the hiking interest rate camp and moved into the holding interest rate camp. This led to the GBP sell off after the last March BoE meeting. However, since then the GBP has pulled back on an index level largely helped by the Chief Economist Huw Pill who was happy to look at the latest UK data and say that he saw no change from March’s rate meeting.
The legend says that the phrase originally came from an old English saying: "Sell in May and go away, and come back on St. Leger's Day." This advice was linked to British aristocrats who used to leave the hot city of London during the summer and return after the St. Leger's Stakes horse race in September. What began as a lifestyle choice for the wealthy has turned into a financial strategy observed in stock markets globally.
Kering’s profitability is firmly tied to the performance of it’s Gucci brand with Bloomberg reporting that Kering derives nearly 70% of its profitability from Gucci. Kering SA seasonals are certainly strong.
At the latest Fed meeting the Fed projected GDP to be 2.1% for 2024, so a firm US GDP print underpins the ‘soft landing’ narrative. A very weak print should support gold as in principle it should weaken the USD on rate cut hopes. So, can gold carry on it’s run higher on Thursday and into the US PCE print on Friday?
On Thursday at 13:30 we have the US GDP print which is expected to come in at 2.4%, down from 3.4% in Q4 2023. At the latest Fed meeting the Fed projected GDP to be 2.1% for 2024, so a…
As more traditional automakers enter the electric vehicle (EV) market, there's a risk of increased competition and market saturation. This could lead to price wars and reduced profit margins for Tesla. Established automakers may leverage their existing brand recognition and customer loyalty to gain an advantage over Tesla. How will Tesla’s earnings on Tuesday match up to this risks?
The CEO aims to save $6 billion in staff costs. UBS's shares fell due to proposed regulatory reforms, potentially resulting in a $20 billion capital hit. The restructuring process, coupled with the merger of parent banks and subsidiaries, makes 2024 a challenging year for the bank.
The next Fed meeting will take place in just over a week, from April 30 to May 1. In view of a higher-than-expected inflation rate, many investors are wondering whether the Fed will signal interest rate cuts this time, and by how much, and what this means for share prices.
On Wednesday we have UK services inflation data out. If we see the print come in much higher than markets are expecting that will mean that rates markets will start to look for a higher for longer rate narrative and that should lift the GBP against the USD as yield differentials narrow.
